Fewer jobs, fewer schools, more homes for sale. The obvious signs of population loss that have been evident for 10 years in Oneida County were to be confirmed today by 2010 Census figures.
Official numbers were due later today.
The 2000 Census put the county’s population at 235,469. That last nosecount, from 1990 to 2000, showed a decrease of nearly 6 percent, from 250,836 to 235,469. The county’s all-time high count was 273,037, recorded in the 1970 Census.
Yearly county population estimates provided by the Census Bureau since 2001 have shown a steady drop. The latest estimate was 229,809; it was not based on the 2010 Census, whose results are based on mailed out surveys.
The yearly estimates rely on administrative records such as births, deaths, and domestic and international immigration, and not actual nationwide population surveys like the decennial census.
Thus, it is unlikely the 229,809 figure will be the same as the 2010 Census number — it could be higher or lower.There have been other signs of a likely population loss.
A Cornell University Program on Applied Demographics study projected drastic a population loss over the next quarter century for Oneida County.
According to this study, the county could lose some 42,500 residents between 2010 and 2035. That would amount to more than entire population of the City of Rome.
The U.S. Census counts heads across in the nation every 10 years. In December, President Barack Obama announced the 2010 total population for the nation was 308,745,538. At the same time Census Bureau reported New York’s population grew slightly in the last decade to 19.4 million. Today’s local numbers will likely show most of the growth occurred in the New York City area over the past decade with population losses in some upstate areas, like Oneida County.
Today’s release of the local data, the first to be provided from the 2010 count, will ignite changes to legislative boundaries in the county, the state and in New York’s U.S. House of Representatives districts. States are required to redraw congressional and legislative districts after every federal census so that they are roughly equal in population. Counties do likewise for their legislatures.
Redistricting in Oneida County will be especially complicated this time around by a near-certain proposal coming from a county committee to shrink the size of the board. The size of the reduction, probably in the range of six to eight from the current 29, depends, in part, on the new population number. The number 29 was determined after the 1990 Census.
New York’s current 29-member House delegation will drop from 29 to 27, its lowest level since 1823.
Redistricting is the once-a-decade process that redraws legislative boundaries to account for population shifts based on the decennial census
The Census numbers also matter when it comes to population-based allocations from the federal government to local governments: the greater the number of residents, the more money received.
While officials were awaiting the release of the population figures, there were some encouraging signs too. A total of 56 new citizens representing 20 countries were welcomed this morning as federal District Court Judge David N. Hurd presided over a naturalization ceremony in Utica. The new citizens hailed from such places as Bosnia-Herzegovina, Dominican Republic, India, Jordan, Mexico, Pakistan, Poland, Russia and Vietnam.
Elsewhere in the county, new citizens were being born in at least one hospital. There were three births this morning at Faxton- St. Luke’s Healthcare in New Hartford with two more mothers-to-be admitted to the maternity unit. No births reported this morning at Rome Memorial Hospital, where there were 15 births earlier this week.
The new citizens and their country of origin were:
Anwar Deng Manyan Agok, Sudan; Maria Elena Albarran DeGibson (Maria Elena Gibson), Mexico; Muhammad Ali, Pakistan; Ted Ankomahene Asare, Ghana.
Ravinderjit Kaur Badhan, India; Muhamed Bricic, Bosnia-Herzegovina; Anna Aleksandrovna Demko (Anna Alexandria Demko), Russia; Thu Thi Duong, Vietnam; Dah Eh (Mary Ju), Burma.
Also, Mirzeta Fetibegovic, Bosnia-Herzegovina; Yelena Fletcher, Russia; Rosa Argentina Gutierrez DeVasquez, Dominican Republic; Thuyen Thi Ha, Vietnam; Huse Hasic, Bosnia-Herzegovina; Remelyn Delacruz Hughes Ducut, Philippines.
Sahro Ahmedey Jeilani, Somalia Abdullahi Abdurahim Jibril, Somalia; Mariya Kichuk, Ukraine; Vasiliy Kichuk, Ukraine; Tejahn Kweh, Liberia; Vasily Misyukovets, Belarus; Asmira Mustafic, Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Dam Thanh Nguyen, Vietnam; Maria Niemiec, Poland; Michal Roman Niemiec, Poland; Roman Jozef Niemiec, Poland; Vera Nikitina, Russia; Narin Nuth, Cambodia.
Fahrudin Omerovic, Bosnia-Herzegovina; Mariya Ostapuk, Belarus; Percy Owooh, Ghana; Dinka Palic, Bosnia-Herzegovina; Melvedina Palic, Bosnia-Herzegovina; Rasid Palic, Bosnia-Herzegovina; Galina Polyukhovich, Belarus; Ladda Pradichith (Nitchada Pradichith), Thailand.
Also, Adis Adil Redzic, Bosnia-Herzegovina; Adnan Redzic, Bosnia-Herzegovina; Nahda Redzic, Bosnia-Herzegovina; Framilly Martina Reinoso Baez, Dominican Republic; Elvedin Sakanovic, Bosnia-Herzegovina; Paru Mukesh Shah, India; Fatima Abdallah Ahmad Shehadeh, Jordan; Sergei Shilo, Belarus; Vera Shilo, Ukraine; Irina Shubich, Belarus; Aliaksandr Shylavets, Belarus; Arkadiy Sidorevich, Belarus; Sergey Sidorevich, Belarus; Tatyana Sidorevich, Belarus; Mikhail Vasilyevich Skorobogach, Ukraine; Alma Sljivo, Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Mamadou Toure, Guinea; Irena Mariola
Wozna (Irena Mariola Wozny), Poland; Aldin Zukic, Bosnia-Herzegovina; Bahrija Zukic, Bosnia-Herzegovina.